# PlanB - Modeling Bitcoin Value With Scarcity (Highlights) ![rw-book-cover|256](https://readwise-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/static/images/article2.74d541386bbf.png) ## Highlights - In this article I quantify scarcity using stock-to-flow, and use stock-to-flow to model bitcoin’s value. ^309894709 - Nick Szabo has a more useful definition of scarcity: 'unforgeable costliness' ^309894710 - "Precious metals and collectibles have an **unforgeable scarcity** due to the costliness of their creation. ^309894711 - Bitcoin has unforgeable costliness, because it costs a lot of electricity to produce new bitcoins. ^309894712 - stock-to-flow ^309894713 Cap/ New - around the year 2022, Bitcoin's **stock-to-flow ratio** will overtake that of gold" ^309894714 - SF = stock / flow ^309894715 - Stock is the size of the existing stockpiles or reserves ^309894716 - Flow is the yearly production ^309894717 - halvings' are very important for bitcoins money supply and SF ^309894718 - The predicted market value for bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1trn, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000. ^309894719